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Severe Weather Setup Monday in East Texas

New Year starts with another chance of severe weather
Credit: CBS 19

TYLER, Texas — 2023 starts with a bang in East Texas. Or should we say crash. We're talking more thunderstorms on the way, and it comes with another setup for severe weather. This set up is similar to others we've seen this fall and early winter.

A large and deep area of low pressure over the Rockies that brings strong upper-level winds at roughly at 18-thousand feet above Texas and the deep south.

At the same time there is a high-pressure system pumping in the needed moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Credit: CBS 19

A needed ingredient for thunderstorms to form is moisture. At this time, it appears we have deep moisture over East Texas and the Ark-La-Tex.

Dew points over East Texas are expected to reach the high 60s. Dew points will be closer to 70 closer to the Gulf. One of my professors at Western Kentucky University used to always say if the dew point isn't at least 62, the chance of severe weather is limited.

Monday's dew points are spring-like numbers and more than sufficient aid in thunderstorm development.

Credit: CBS 19

Wind shear or the change in direction or speed with height is also evident Monday afternoon. If we look at the wind speeds around 5,000 feet or the 850 milibar layer, we can get a good feel for the amount of vertical wind shear that is possible.

Remember that the earth's surface causes friction and slows the wind speed closer to the ground so if the winds are fast around 5,000 feet, it's a good indicator that winds will continue to increase the higher in the atmosphere we travel.

Monday's forecasted 850 winds should approach 65 mph per hour and may exceed it in some spots. Shear is important because it helps to start thunderstorms rotating. If they can rotate they can produce large hail or even tornadoes.

Credit: CBS 19

Downward momentum can transfer these wind speeds to the surface. So it may be safe to assume that damaging wind gusts near 65 mph will be possible Monday afternoon and Monday evening. 

If there is one thing that is not overly impressive in this setup it's the available energy. Our in-house computer guidance suggest moderate instability in the atmosphere over East Texas Monday. 

That's likely due to the amount of cloud cover we'll see Monday morning. There will also be a few scattered showers early Monday so that will steal some of the energy early in the day. 

Credit: CBS 19

There is still a lot to be determined about Monday's severe weather event. Exact timing and location still needs to be nailed down and that will come as we get closer to Monday. At this time, it appears the biggest threat will emerge between mid-afternoon and Monday night. 

But for now, let's be on our toes from late morning into the evening in East Texas. That way we will be prepared whether we get large hail, straight-line winds or tornadoes. 

Credit: CBS 19

We will update the blog throughout the weekend. Be sure to keep checking back for updates. 

Thank you for taking time out of your day to read the blog and help prepare yourself for Monday's possible severe weather. 

Let's hope the New Year doesn't start with a severe weather bang but more of just a rumble. 

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